Market Research & Options Analysis

Wed Sep 16 — Fed decision at 2:00pm ET (SEP, dot plot, Warsh at 2:30) with ~93% odds of a quarter-point hike; futures pointing higher after two down days (S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.6%) as WTI slides 2%+ to ~$103.50 and the 10Y eases to 4.97%. August retail sales ran hot at +1.2% vs +0.8% expected. We think hike odds are overestimated — the chance of a continued pause is higher than futures admit. [Updated 9:10am ET]

Tue Sep 15 — S&P 500 -0.5% to 7,585.73 on FOMC-eve oil and yield pressure, WTI +4.4% to $105.83, the 10-year closed 4.99% after touching a 19-year intraday high, hike odds at 95%.

Tue Sep 15 — FOMC day one with a 92%-priced hike, the 10Y back above 5% (highest since 2007), Brent near $108 on the Saudi pipeline shutdown, and mixed China data overnight.

Mon Sep 14 — S&P 500 -0.5% to 7,618.70 as the AI-safety debate hit chips and the 10-year touched 5%; VIX +8.5% to 17.18, WTI settled at $101.39, FOMC decision Wednesday.

Mon Sep 14 — the AI-caution trade hammers chips (Nasdaq futures −1.8%), crude surges past $107 on the Saudi pipeline shutdown, and Wednesday's FOMC is ~90%-priced for a 25bp hike.

Every defined-risk structure on this journal carries the same five exits, decided before entry. The exit is part of the trade — not an afterthought.

Fri Sep 11 — CPI day: August CPI at 8:30 AM ET (consensus +0.3% MoM core) is the verdict for September positioning into Wednesday's FOMC.

S&P 500 closes Friday at 7,656 (+0.86%), snapping a four-day losing streak, as August CPI prints +0.4% MoM with core +0.3%; VIX -11.2% to 15.84.

Thu Sep 10 opens modestly higher pre-CPI positioning; Initial Claims at 8:30 AM ET; oil extends past $95 (CL $97.53); Friday's CPI is the verdict.