How We Make Our Market Forecasts
A transparent look at the data, process, and reasoning behind our S&P 500 outlooks and options trade ideas.
Introduction
Our forecasts are built from publicly available market data and established financial theory. Every update follows a structured process — not gut feelings, not algorithmic signals, and not proprietary black boxes. Here's exactly what goes into each market outlook we publish.
Data Sources
We rely exclusively on publicly available market data. No proprietary feeds, no insider information, no premium subscriptions required to verify our work.
- Yahoo Finance — Daily closing prices and volume for SPY, QQQ, VIX, and DIA
- CBOE VIX — The CBOE Volatility Index, our primary measure of market uncertainty
- Public.com API — Options chain data including open interest, volume, and implied volatility by strike
- Standard Options Pricing Theory — The Black-Scholes framework informs our understanding of option valuation, though we don't calculate Black-Scholes directly in our analysis
- FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) — For macroeconomic context including GDP, employment, and interest rate data
All data is fetched and analyzed as of the most recent trading day's close. We do not trade on pre-market or intraday data for our daily outlooks.
Our Six-Step Process
Each market update follows the same repeatable framework:
1. Market Data Collection
We record the closing prices of SPY (S&P 500 ETF), QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF), VIX (CBOE Volatility Index), and DIA (Dow Jones ETF) each trading day. These four instruments give us a clear picture of broad market direction and volatility regime.
2. Options Chain Analysis
We examine the options chain for nearby expirations — typically the nearest monthly or weekly expiration — looking at open interest concentrations, put/call ratios, and implied volatility levels across strikes. This tells us where the market sees risk and where the "insurance" demand is highest.
3. VIX Regime Classification
We classify the current volatility environment into one of four regimes:
- Calm — VIX below 15. Low fear, favorable for premium-selling strategies.
- Elevated — VIX 15–20. Normal uncertainty, balanced approach.
- High — VIX 20–30. Elevated fear, wider spreads, higher premiums available.
- Panic — VIX above 30. Crisis conditions, defensive posture only.
The VIX regime directly determines which option strategies we consider and how we size positions.
4. Directional Bias Assessment
We evaluate directional signals from both technical and fundamental sources:
- Technical: Price vs. key moving averages (50-day, 200-day), trend direction, support and resistance zones
- Fundamental: Macro environment (GDP, employment, Fed policy), earnings trajectory, valuation levels
We form a directional bias — bullish, bearish, or neutral — and state our confidence level clearly. We do not pretend to precision we don't have.
5. Spread Strategy Selection
Once we have a VIX regime and directional bias, we select a spread structure that matches the conditions. The table below shows our default framework:
6. Trade Idea Formatting
Every trade idea we publish is formatted with: the underlying instrument, the specific strikes and expiration, the net cost or credit, the maximum risk, the maximum reward, and the probability of profit based on the VIX-derived probability distribution. This gives you everything you need to evaluate the idea on your own.
Strategy Selection Framework
Our strategy selection is governed by two inputs: VIX regime and directional bias.
| VIX Regime | VIX Level | Bullish Bias | Neutral Bias | Bearish Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm | < 15 | Bull Put Spread | Iron Condor | Bear Call Spread |
| Elevated | 15–20 | Bull Call Spread | Iron Condor | Bear Put Spread |
| High | 20–30 | Bull Put Spread (wider) | Iron Condor (wider) | Bear Call Spread (wider) |
| Panic | > 30 | Defensive — reduce size | Defensive — reduce size | Defensive — reduce size |
Defined-Risk Spreads Only
One principle we hold firmly: we only recommend defined-risk spreads. Every strategy we publish has a maximum loss that is known before you place the trade. We do not recommend naked short volatility positions, uncovered short options, or any strategy where your downside is theoretically unlimited.
The strategies we use:
- Bull Put Spread — Sell a higher strike put, buy a lower strike put for protection. Max loss = spread width minus net credit.
- Bull Call Spread — Buy a lower strike call, sell a higher strike call. Max loss = net cost paid.
- Bear Call Spread — Sell a lower strike call, buy a higher strike call for protection. Max loss = spread width minus net credit.
- Bear Put Spread — Buy a higher strike put, sell a lower strike put. Max loss = net cost paid.
- Iron Condor — A bull put spread combined with a bear call spread. Four legs, defined max loss on each side.
- Calendar Spread — Sell a short-dated option, buy a longer-dated option at the same strike. Profits from time decay differential.
What We Don't Do
For transparency, here is what we explicitly avoid:
- No naked short calls or puts — Unlimited loss potential; we don't recommend these to readers
- No short volatility ETFs — VXX, SVIX, and similar products lose value structurally in trending markets
- No leveraged ETFs for directional bets — TQQQ, SPXL, and 3x products are tools for short-term traders, not long-term investors
- No earnings plays — Binary events introduce volatility crush risk we don't find suitable for educational recommendations
- No illiquid options — We only analyze options with sufficient open interest and volume
Probability and Risk Management
No trade is a sure thing. We estimate probability of profit using a simplified model based on VIX-derived implied volatility and the distance of strikes from current price. These are estimates, not guarantees — but they give you a disciplined framework for position sizing.
We generally aim for trades with a probability of profit in the 55–75% range. Lower probability trades are reserved for situations where the reward-to-risk ratio is exceptional.
Update Schedule
Our market outlook is updated at the end of each trading day, using closing prices. We do not update during the trading day — closing prices are the foundation of our analysis. If market conditions change significantly between updates (e.g., a major geopolitical event or Fed announcement), we may publish an interim note.
Educational content is reviewed and updated on a quarterly basis, or sooner if we identify a material inaccuracy.
Last Updated
April 2026
This methodology page is reviewed quarterly. Last substantive review: April 2026.